20 Subscriber Questions on Bitcoin, MSTR, Market Cycles and Personal Strategy

Hey everyone, and welcome back to the On-Chain Mind Newsletter.

Today we’re diving into 20 great questions submitted by you, the community. We’ll be covering a broad spectrum: Bitcoin cycle theory, how I personally manage MSTR risk, trading strategies, portfolio structure, and even a bit about my background. There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s dive straight in!

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1. When Will Bitcoin Peak This Cycle, and at What Price?

Question: If I were to ask you the probable BTC peak date and price in this cycle, what would your opinion be?

My Thoughts: Straight in at the deep end here! Predictions are a mug’s game, most are useless, including the speculative ones I’ve shared before. That said, I’m confident in spotting a peak when signals align in real time. If you twist my arm for a guess (and please, don’t bet the farm on this), I’d say Q1-Q2 2026 with a price north of $200,000. But I’m not married to that number. I rely on metrics like the Ω Score and Cycle Top Lines to gauge when a top is likely, and I’ll keep you posted as those signals evolve.

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2. What Kind of Correction Should We Expect?

Question: What kind of correction can we expect in this cycle post the euphoric bull phase?

My Thoughts: A very mature question! The bull market’s intensity shapes the bear market that follows. Right now, we’re in a “step-ladder” bull market. Reasonably tame for Bitcoin, very measured. If it stays this way (which I doubt, if I’m honest), a 40-50% drawdown might be the worst-case scenario. Historically, every cycle has seen 70%+ corrections (see chart below), often tied to blow-off tops. If we get one of those, brace for a bear market of a similar scale.

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3. Are the Days of 50%+ Bear Markets Over?

Question: Michael Saylor recently said that the days of 50%+ bear markets are over, claiming institutional demand will always provide a bid. What are your thoughts for this cycle?

My Thoughts: The influx of treasury companies and ETFs is fantastic, but will they hold firm in a brutal bear market? I’m skeptical. Strategy (MSTR) and some ETF flows will persist, but enough to prevent mass capitulation? I’ll believe it when I see it. MSTR weathered the last bear market, so I’m confident in their resilience. But other treasury companies? Many might sell their Bitcoin to prop up share prices when the market tanks. ETFs, driven largely by retail, often do the opposite of what’s smart. A bear market’s coming—how deep it goes is anyone’s guess. Be ready for anything.

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4. What’s Your Background?

Question: What’s your background? Do you have a degree in mathematics? Do you work at a hedge fund or prop trading firm?

My Thoughts: I’ve been hooked on Bitcoin and crypto since 2017. Professionally day-to-day, I’m a long-haul airline pilot. Before that, I earned a degree in Particle Physics, which shaped my approach to complex systems, separating noise from signal, and finding clarity in uncertainty. That analytical mindset drives my Bitcoin metrics which you’ve all become accustomed to. Hope that answers your question!

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5. Do You Invest in Altcoins?

Question: Do you invest in altcoins or just BTC?

My Thoughts: I do dabble in altcoins, but they’re a tiny slice of my portfolio compared to BTC and MSTR. I don’t think I can consistently outperform BTC with altcoins, but they let me tinker with trading, which helps keep me disciplined with my core Bitcoin strategy.

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6. Plans to Analyse On-Chain Data for Altcoins?

Question: Are there any plans to analyse on-chain data for other altcoins?

My Thoughts: Almost definitely, it’s on the horizon. I’m building a website for my full indicator suite, which will expand the current offering significantly. Current subscribers will get access, and I’m aiming to have it live by year-end.

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7. Best Metrics for Swing Trading MSTR?

Question: During Bitcoin bull runs, I trade all my stocks for MSTR and swing trade it. What are the best Bitcoin metrics for detecting local tops in MSTR? What would you look at most?

My Thoughts: That’s a bold strategy, but it’s high-risk with all your eggs in one stock. Be cautious with single-stock portfolios, no matter how strong your conviction. For detecting local tops in MSTR, my go-to tools are the MSTR σ Bands and the MSTR Risk Oscillator (charts available below). I’ve covered these in past videos and posts, and I’ll keep updating them as the cycle progresses.

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8. How Will MNAV Compression Evolve Through Cycles?

Question: Is there any thought on how the MNAV compression would evolve through the bull and bear cycles?

My Thoughts: I believe MNAV is purely speculative, driven by how much the market (retail or institutional) believes Saylor can keep increasing Bitcoin Per Share. In the last bear market, MNAV got crushed, dropping as low as 0.8. In bull markets, it can soar to 4.0+. That’s why I plan to rotate out of most of my MSTR position at the cycle peak to dodge a potential bear market bloodbath. If you’re HODLing MSTR for the long term (5-10 years), you don’t need to be tactical—it’ll likely do just fine.

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9. Should I Buy STRK If I Already Own MSTR?

Question: I’m concerned about “leveraged” BTC securities like MSTR and STRK. I’m afraid that if I miss the market top, they will plummet faster than BTC. Would you recommend buying STRK at this point in the cycle? I already own MSTR.

My Thoughts: From my limited knowledge on these offerings, STRK is a perpetual preferred issued by Strategy, sitting above MSTR common stock but below its debt and senior preferreds. You get a juicy coupon plus the right to convert into MSTR shares at a set price, but dividends aren’t backed by cash flows (although they are backed by a ton of BTC). They’re paid only if the board declares them and can be deferred or paid in stock, so yield risk is a potential. Conversion is optional, but downside magnification comes from illiquidity and payout risk, not mechanical leverage. Since you already own MSTR, adding STRK now layers on dividend and structural risks without meaningful new upside. I’m holding off on STRK and sticking with my MSTR exposure personally for now.

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10. How Will a Recession and Rate Cuts Impact Bitcoin?

Question: How do you think a potential recession and rate cut in September will affect this BTC cycle and price?

My Thoughts: The market’s been salivating for rate cuts, and when they hit, it’ll likely go nuts. That’s why I think Jerome Powell’s holding off: he’s wary of reigniting inflation. When cuts do happen, expect a bullish surge for BTC and altcoins. It could spark the blow-off top everyone’s been waiting for.

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11. Will OTHERS.D Surge in an Altseason?

Question: Do you think OTHERS.D will follow the bullish trend range and reach above 20-30%?

My Thoughts: Despite what some say, I believe an altseason is coming at some point. Human nature drives retail speculation, and even junk projects get swept up in the frenzy. While some argue institutional focus on BTC will mute altcoin rallies, I think retail’s greed will overpower that narrative. I wouldn’t be shocked if OTHERS.D hits 20%+ again.

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12. What If Retail Stays on the Sidelines?

Question: In your videos, you often mention the lack of strong retail participation. What if the economy doesn’t allow for a strong retail wave this time?

My Thoughts: Rate cuts and liquidity injections will eventually push BTC’s price to levels that grab media and retail attention. A $120k BTC might not do it, but that just means the cycle peak could be higher than we originally thought.

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13. Long-Term Bitcoin Investment Strategy?

Question: For long-term investors (10/15/20+ years), what would you suggest as a strategy for current BTC holdings and new dry powder?

My Thoughts: It’s personal, but keeping some dry powder for dips is key (in my opinion). Dips always come with Bitcoin. Some hold 5% cash, others 20%, some none. I aim for about 10%, but it’s tough when opportunities are everywhere and market euphoria can tempt you to go all-in!

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14. Is Bitcoin Day Trading Viable?

Question: What are your thoughts on BTC day trading? Doable? Which leading indicators would you lean on?

My Thoughts: It’s doable, especially with a tax-free setup. Leading indicators are tricky on short timeframes though—signals get noisy. Technical analysis and market maker moves dominate day trading. But beware: Bitcoin’s volatility can wipe out undisciplined accounts fast. My metrics are more suited for swing trading setups and macro cycle timing.

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15. Plans for Pine Script Algo Trading?

Question: I’m interested in automated algo trading using Pine Script. Do you plan to convert some of your indicators into strategy scripts (especially for short-term signals on 4h timeframe)?

My Thoughts: I don’t currently plan to create strategy scripts. I’m hesitant to prescribe specific strategies, as I’d rather share data and opinions. As a growing voice, I want to avoid steering people into rigid trading plans.

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16. Would You DCA Bitcoin at $150,000?

Question: Would you still be accumulating BTC if it reached $150k this cycle, or would you pause DCA?

My Thoughts: I’d keep DCAing at any price if metrics signal it’s safe. My daily DCA is small but steady, so it’s sustainable even in frothy markets. I probably won’t stop, even near a peak, as it’s consistency that creates long-term wealth. Timing the market with your entire bag can leave you sidelined for too long.

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17. How Do You Sell Without Getting Emotional?

Question: How do you personally approach selling during bull markets without getting too emotional?

My Thoughts: It’s the easiest to say but hardest to do. Selling in a bull market tests your discipline like nothing else. Sticking to data sounds simple, but when markets are ripping, letting go feels wrong. Emotions will always creep in, so I lean on automation and rules to stay objective. The trick is pre-committing to a plan—say, selling 10% at a certain risk level—and executing without second-guessing. Transparency helps too. I’ll always flag when I think the market’s overheated and whether I’m selling.

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18. How Does a Reverse DCA Strategy Work?

Question: Could you explain how you calculate your reverse DCA strategy? What % do you sell, and at what point do you start selling?

My Thoughts: It depends on the metric, but reverse DCA beats lump-sum selling nearly all of the time. If a metric scales 0-100 (100 being max risk), I’d stop accumulating around 70 and start scaling out at 80, selling more as risk hits 85, 90, 95, etc. The key is selling less early and more as risk rises, the total opposite to accumulation DCA. Reverse DCA spreads risk, ensuring you lock in gains without guessing the exact top. Tailor percentages to your portfolio size and risk tolerance. But as an example you could: sell 10% at 80, 15% at 85, 20% at 90, 25% at 95, 30% at 100 (if you plan to sell your entire bag).

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19. Favourite Non-Crypto Market Indicators?

Question: Do you have any favourite indicators that are not specific to BTC/crypto but are related to the stock market or economy in general?

My Thoughts: For stocks and the economy, I like:

1. 200-day moving average (classic, my heatmap helps me visualise this)

2. Mayer Multiple (similar logic to above)

3. Z-Score Probability Waves (great for stock mean reversions and pair trading two assets together)

4. Global liquidity indicators (the tide that lifts all boats)

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20. Overrated or Misunderstood On-Chain Metrics?

Question: Are there any on-chain metrics you think are overrated or misunderstood by retail traders?

My Thoughts: Most on-chain metrics are solid if you know how to read them. Exchange balances and OTC balances are often misunderstood—useful, but there’s so much nuance most can’t fully decode. A drop in exchange balances might signal accumulation, but it could also mean coins moving to custody or OTC deals. Retail often takes these at face value, missing nuances like wallet consolidation or institutional flows. Always dig deeper than the headline number.

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Wrapping Up

Thanks for sending in such thoughtful questions! Bitcoin’s a complex beast, but judging by the level of these questions, you’re all thinking about the right things.

I’ll keep you updated on my metrics, trading setups, and the new website launch. Got more questions? Drop them below, and let’s keep the conversation going for next time!

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Cheers,

On-Chain Mind

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