I like your reasoning, it’s better to be more conservative (IMO) than believe the rally will go on forever. I like how you use metrics from different aspects of the market. Great stuff
I’m glad they’ve been helpful. It’s impossible to know where it will go. I think a sub-100k BTC is pretty unlikely at this stage for a while. The 104k level would be a place of interest because it’s near the short-term holder cost basis. That would be a level I would load up some more on.
ETH has its place, but it certainly won’t be the top performing alt this cycle, and its performance vs. BTC has been horrendous for years!
Thank you very much for your answer. I agree, anything below 104k is very unlikely. How far do you see MSTR dropping if BTC hits 104k? I've just bought the dip because of your insightful video but I'm unsure if I should allocate more cash soon.
And are there any altcoins you'd prefer over ETH? I'm a big fan of LINK and TAO. But I'll probably only buy alts mid October when they've hopefully hit the bottom.
I always try and keep a certain % of cash on hand just in case of any dips. With their current bitcoin stash and a mNAV of 1.7 it would be hard to see it drop below $350, but if they did I would again be buying hard.
I’m not big into specific altcoin picks but I like LINK as well. Also like what Solana and Sui are doing
So much value thanks man! I’m thinking the only way we’ll get a blow off top is either a strategic reserve or a ton of QE. Otherse my base case will be slow and steady grind up together with the s&p until a recession hits.
Regarding the Macro Cycle Master, taking a close look at your chart in the 2021 timeframe, I see that the red seemed to trigger first around BTC price of $30 - 35K or so. Clearly that wasn't the top and if we sold at those levels, it would have been a disaster. I get that we need to use multiple indicators for confluence, but are these indicators real time, predictive, or lagging?
I think like you said it’s important to use a cluster of different metrics. There is no single metric that prints the absolute top and bottom every time to the day. But using even 3-4 unrelated, but complimentary tools can get you pretty close.
The Macro Cycle Master uses real-time on-chain data. My Ω Score uses some similar metrics and gives you a more oscillator style indicator to help scale out in a reverse-DCA fashion. Which is always a much better method IMO.
Having said that, even if you unloaded your entire bag at that first flag, you would’ve made a 10x on your investment from the previous cycle bottom. You never go broke taking profits.
love it . can we access all the indicators in the premium suite?
They can be found in the “Full Custom Indicator Suite” post in my newsletter here: https://onchainmind.substack.com/p/full-custom-bitcoin-indicator-suite?r=56ys8o 👍🏼
Very interesting read.
Glad you found it useful. I’ll make some more top-focused ones in the future 👍🏼
my gut feeling is that ~125k to ~130k is the top this cycle.
Rolling 52 Week Sharpe Ratio and
Mayer Multiple
are making lower highs.. https://charts.bitbo.io/sharpe-ratio/ https://charts.bitbo.io/mayermultiple/ also LTH realized price looks overheated... https://charts.bitbo.io/lth-realized-price/
I like your reasoning, it’s better to be more conservative (IMO) than believe the rally will go on forever. I like how you use metrics from different aspects of the market. Great stuff
Thank you so much for your indicators, they've been super helpful!
But if you were sidelined right now, would you buy more BTC at 113k? Is a drop to 104k or even 90k likely? What's your opinion on ETH right now?
I’m glad they’ve been helpful. It’s impossible to know where it will go. I think a sub-100k BTC is pretty unlikely at this stage for a while. The 104k level would be a place of interest because it’s near the short-term holder cost basis. That would be a level I would load up some more on.
ETH has its place, but it certainly won’t be the top performing alt this cycle, and its performance vs. BTC has been horrendous for years!
Thank you very much for your answer. I agree, anything below 104k is very unlikely. How far do you see MSTR dropping if BTC hits 104k? I've just bought the dip because of your insightful video but I'm unsure if I should allocate more cash soon.
And are there any altcoins you'd prefer over ETH? I'm a big fan of LINK and TAO. But I'll probably only buy alts mid October when they've hopefully hit the bottom.
I always try and keep a certain % of cash on hand just in case of any dips. With their current bitcoin stash and a mNAV of 1.7 it would be hard to see it drop below $350, but if they did I would again be buying hard.
I’m not big into specific altcoin picks but I like LINK as well. Also like what Solana and Sui are doing
So much value thanks man! I’m thinking the only way we’ll get a blow off top is either a strategic reserve or a ton of QE. Otherse my base case will be slow and steady grind up together with the s&p until a recession hits.
I completely agree with you on all parts actually!
Great minds🧠
💯%
Regarding the Macro Cycle Master, taking a close look at your chart in the 2021 timeframe, I see that the red seemed to trigger first around BTC price of $30 - 35K or so. Clearly that wasn't the top and if we sold at those levels, it would have been a disaster. I get that we need to use multiple indicators for confluence, but are these indicators real time, predictive, or lagging?
I think like you said it’s important to use a cluster of different metrics. There is no single metric that prints the absolute top and bottom every time to the day. But using even 3-4 unrelated, but complimentary tools can get you pretty close.
The Macro Cycle Master uses real-time on-chain data. My Ω Score uses some similar metrics and gives you a more oscillator style indicator to help scale out in a reverse-DCA fashion. Which is always a much better method IMO.
Having said that, even if you unloaded your entire bag at that first flag, you would’ve made a 10x on your investment from the previous cycle bottom. You never go broke taking profits.