Maybe I do not understand this properly, or am I correct in saying that with this chart I would have actually lost money when going off of the trading view chart? In my math I start off with one bitcoin in June 2024 and in May 2025 I am down to 0.85 BTC.
Using bitcoinfairprice.com for price data (with over or under valued according to power law)
Have 1 bitcoin
Sell 1 bitcoin June 20 2024 (1 BTC is $64907 6% undervalued)
Now have $64907
Buy bitcoin Nov 08 2024 (1 BTC is $75,987 %5 undervalued)
Now have 0.85418558 BTC
Sell bitcoin Feb 24 2025 (1 BTC is $96,555 9% overvalued)
Now have $82475.88
Buy bitcoin May 07 2025 (1 BTC is $96,635 10% overvalued)
Now have 0.85347834 BTC
Am I doing something wrong, is my math wrong? Or is 1 year too short of a timeframe for this theory to play out?
To use it yourself it is part of the full indicator suite, which is for premium members. Otherwise I will provide updates on it to all subscribers from time to time 👍🏼
On-Chain is this indicator part of the monthly subcription ?
Cheers
It will be shortly when I add it in on the next update!
I just tried to make a similar indicator using your blog.
//@version=5
indicator("Bull Momentum Gauge (Fixed)", overlay=true)
// === INPUTS ===
maLength = input.int(365, title="MA Period (days)")
zmaLength = input.int(200, title="Z-score MA Period")
src = close
// === CALCULATE Z-SCORE ===
ma = ta.sma(src, maLength)
stdev = ta.stdev(src, maLength)
zscore = (src - ma) / stdev // Not inverted
// === SIGNAL LINE ===
zscore_ma = ta.sma(zscore, zmaLength)
// === ENTRY LOGIC ===
bullish = zscore > zscore_ma
bearish = zscore < zscore_ma
// === PLOT SIGNAL BACKGROUND ===
bgcolor(bullish ? color.new(color.green, 85) : bearish ? color.new(color.red, 85) : na)
// === PLOT SIGNAL MARKERS ===
plotshape(bullish and not bullish[1], title="BUY", location=location.belowbar, style=shape.labelup, color=color.green, text="BUY")
plotshape(bearish and not bearish[1], title="EXIT", location=location.abovebar, style=shape.labeldown, color=color.red, text="EXIT")
// === DEBUG PLOT ===
showZ = input.bool(false, title="Show Z-score Plot")
plot(showZ ? zscore : na, title="Z-score", color=color.blue)
plot(showZ ? zscore_ma : na, title="Z-score MA", color=color.orange)
Is this in the indicator suite? I may have overlooked it
Yeah it’s in the Trend & Momentum Tools section 👍🏼 let me know if you’ve got it. If not I can send the link privately to you
On-Chain, do you use this methodology with your own investment?
I don’t use it on its own, but its good to assess for confluence alongside other metrics for sure
Maybe I do not understand this properly, or am I correct in saying that with this chart I would have actually lost money when going off of the trading view chart? In my math I start off with one bitcoin in June 2024 and in May 2025 I am down to 0.85 BTC.
Using bitcoinfairprice.com for price data (with over or under valued according to power law)
Have 1 bitcoin
Sell 1 bitcoin June 20 2024 (1 BTC is $64907 6% undervalued)
Now have $64907
Buy bitcoin Nov 08 2024 (1 BTC is $75,987 %5 undervalued)
Now have 0.85418558 BTC
Sell bitcoin Feb 24 2025 (1 BTC is $96,555 9% overvalued)
Now have $82475.88
Buy bitcoin May 07 2025 (1 BTC is $96,635 10% overvalued)
Now have 0.85347834 BTC
Am I doing something wrong, is my math wrong? Or is 1 year too short of a timeframe for this theory to play out?
As a subscriber will you give updates on when the indicator turns green and red ?
I will definitely include it as part of my analysis. As a subscriber, you also have complete access to it to use in TradingView
I subscribed, but I don’t see how to get there
To use it yourself it is part of the full indicator suite, which is for premium members. Otherwise I will provide updates on it to all subscribers from time to time 👍🏼
What about tax implications
Awesome indicator! Will try it in the bear market and compare to HODLing!
Or use Cycle indicators that identifies topping and bottoming patterns.
I recently wrote an article about them
How does this differ from the Mayer Multiple? They follow one another almost exactly.
Hi on-chain
So If I was to buy when green and sell when red, should I set the timeframe to daily, weekly or monthly?
Can I test this indicator? How can i get this? I dont see this and which package do i need to book?
Yes you will be able to, I am about to add it to premium indicator list for paid subscribers 👍🏼
great! Can you tell when? :)